Prelim winners: John Connolly & Dan Conley
Overperformer: John Barros
Underperformer: Charlotte Golar Richie
I know common wisdom says Walsh beats Conley, but I'm just not hearing that from people who aren't in unions. Almost everyone I've spoken to or overheard who is voting for a contender is voting Conley. I'm very surprised and am not ashamed to say I hope I'm wrong.
I think Barros will overperform, which is to say he'll do better than 5-6%, and may even outpoll Arroyo.
Golar Richie spiked in the polls, but then the media and her own campaign did a number on her. I don't see her doing better than 4th, and wouldn't be surprised to see her go 6th.
City Council At-Large
Prelim winners: Alyssa Pressley, Stephen Murphy, Jeff Ross, Marty Keogh
Pressley and Murphy are no-brainers, as they're the only incumbents. Jeff Ross, whose middle name is Michael, is going to benefit from some confusion, and he's a likable candidate to boot. Marty Keogh has been an animal on the trail. The guy is just everywhere. Michael Flaherty felt a little stale and pissed a lot of people off when he ran for mayor, but he might surprise. Michelle Wu might also be a dark horse. If either of them win, expect it to be at the expense of Ross.
City Council District 5
Prelim winners: Tim McCarthy & Mimi Turchinetz
District 5 as a sea of candidates, but honestly, nobody but these two and Andrew Cousino ran a particularly visible campaign. Add to it that Cousino looked like he failed debate class in the public forum, and you have a race in the general between two very qualified candidates with different backgrounds and different outlooks as to what city council should do, and you get a pretty good race come November.
What do you think? Like my picks? Have your own? Think I'm an idiot? Comment below.